The Nuggets are Crushed by the Rockets 109-81 and Are Now Under an Orange Alert

The Nuggets were just about blown out in the 1st quarter in Houston. They played the Rockets more or less equal the rest of the game, but had no chance to make up for the huge 1st quarter deficit. One reason was that Kenyon Martin was unable to rebound and then unable to play at all due to an aggravation of one of his rehabbed knees. Tracy McGrady is no LeBron James, and not even a Carmelo Anthony usually, but in this game he went off for 35 points on 13/23 in 34 minutes.

New Rockets Coach Rick Adelman has introduced a balanced offense intended to remove some of the scoring burden on McGrady. So the Rockets won by doing what the Nuggets have been able to do only against teams with serious losing records so far. They spread the wealth. Although McGrady was big, he was supplemented by a balanced attack from players such as PF Chuck Hayes and veteran SG Steve Francis. "We said we have to get back to playing the type of offense we played in the beginning of the season and that's what we did," McGrady said after the game. Great, teams are now treating the Nuggets as the perfect opportunity to get back on track offensively. If offensively challenged Houston can explode on the Nuggets, who can’t, other than maybe the Wolves and Sonics?

This 109-81 rout was even worse than the Celtics rout a half month ago. The Nuggets made only a pathetic 8 assists, and Iverson failed to get even 1 assist. Carmelo Anthony failed to get to the line even once. Kenyon Martin failed to get a single rebound. PG Anthony Carter failed to get a single point in 24 minutes of action. You rarely see a team out rebounded as badly as the Nuggets were last night, 57-38. Only three Nuggets played as well as normal or a little better: J.R. Smith, Yakhouba Diawara, and Mike Wilks. As routs go, this was as ugly as it gets. I don’t think it gets any worse than this unless a team has totally packed it in for the year and they know the Coach is history or something.

PG Anthony Carter is back, but went 0/3 from the field and had 5 turnovers against 3 assists, so the Nuggets would have been just as well off in this game if he was still out and Mike Wilks in. Mike Wilks was cut way back in favor of Carter, and the Nuggets suffered in this game from that. I’m not sure who would make a better point guard over the remainder of the season, but for this game, Wilks would have been a big upgrade over Carter. The more polished veteran point guard, Chucky Atkins, remains out for several more weeks. When he comes back, Atkins will most likely not flame out like Carter did in this game.

It is now ORANGE alert for the Nuggets, as a result of Kenyon Martin’s straining his knee badly to go along with all of the other injuries. The injuries alone would just about constitute a YELLOW alert, but the continuing lack of offensive schemes, inconsistent player rotations, and inconsistency even from Melo makes this an ORANGE alert. An ORANGE alert means that the entire season is under a serious threat until and unless some of the problems are relieved, so that the condition is improved to a YELLOW alert or better.

With the Nuggets rollercoaster more wild this year than last, and with fans turning downright hostile as a result of the Nuggets looking so bad in the last 3 games, it is time to introduce a new “alert system” to let fans know just how bad the situation really is.
The alert system is a way to sum up the overall damage caused by all of the injuries and problems that exist at a given point in time. The amount of damage determines to what extent the season as a whole is damaged or even ruined. The level of damage also determines the likelihood of winning or losing individual games against teams that are placed in three levels: good or quality teams, medium or mid-level teams, and poor or low level teams.

So here is the alert system for the Nuggets: The numbers refer to “problem points,” which will be explained further and listed below. All teams in the NBA have problems, and the question is how many and how severe they are. Here are the definitions for the different alert levels:

NO ALERT (0-19): There are virtually no problems. Teams like the Spurs are in this category from time to time.

GREEN ALERT (20-29): A set of minor problems whose total impact is very small. There is very little effect on the team’s ability to win games against teams from any level.

GREY ALERT (30-39): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses when there is a GREY ALERT.

YELLOW ALERT (40-54): Minor damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under medium threat. Beating quality teams is much more difficult and will be pretty rare. About 1/2 of all wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is a little more difficult. About 1/4 of games that would be wins agsinst mid-level teams will now be losses. Beating low level teams is still relatively easy, but no longer almost a sure bet. A good team has become in between a good team and a mid-level team when it is under this alert.

ORANGE ALERT (55-74): Moderate damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under serious threat, and you can just about forget about beating quality teams. About 3/4 of all wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is much more difficult ORANGE ALERT. About 1/2 of games against mid-level teams that would have been won will be lost under this alert. Even poor teams can often beat an otherwise good team that is under this alert. Close to 1/4 of games against low level teams that would have been won will be lost under this alert. A good team has been reduced to being a mid-level team, at best, when it is under this alert.

RED ALERT (75-99): Serious damage to the season is occurring now. Beating quality teams is almost impossible. Beating mid-level teams is extremely difficult and will be unusual. About 3/4 of games against mid-level teams that would have been won will be lost if there is a RED ALERT. The result against low-level teams is on a case by case basis. Close to 1/2 of games against low level teams that would have been won will be lost under this alert. Essentially, a RED ALERT means that an otherwise good team has been reduced to being a poor or low level team.

BLACK ALERT (100+): The season is lost and, under normal circumstances, the Coach is going to be fired no later than the end of the season. The Coach almost always gets fired when a season is lost during what was supposed to be a good season, regardless of how much of the blame actually is due the coach for the problems that led to the loss of the season. Under a BLACK ALERT, the team has become one of the worst teams in the League, and will lose most of it's games.

George Karl, for reasons that have been discussed extensively in many game reports, has had the Nuggets in a GREY alert or worse since he arrived in Denver. Last season, with the suspensions, J.R. Smith injury, and inability of the reserves to contribute, the team was in YELLOW alert or ORANGE alert all season. When J.R. Smith was benched for the Spurs series, the situation became RED alert. It was no longer possible to defeat a team like the Spurs.

This season, the Nuggets started off in GREY alert and then went to a YELLOW alert on November 6 when Nene was injured. These alerts (or problems) have been mostly hidden because the Nuggets have had the easiest schedule in the NBA. They have 9 wins, but 7 of those wins were against the very worst teams in the NBA. Another one of those wins was against the Pacers, an average team at best. The 9th win was against the Cavaliers. Although the Cavaliers are a good team, they played the Nuggets with no rest on the last day of their Western road trip, while the Nuggets were rested. It wasn’t really a fair fight. The conclusion is nerve racking: the Nuggets really haven’t beaten anybody yet. Ouch.

Now the Nuggets have gone from YELLOW alert to a dangerous ORANGE alert status, due to the Kenyon Martin re-injury of his knee. In order for a situation to be counted toward alert status, it must be an injury, an unexpected key player performance problem, a clear case of bad or lacking coaching of the team, or the team not playing with heart and intensity, which is required to turn talent into results.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of November 25, 2007

INJURIES

1. Nene injury 10 Points
2. Chucky Atkins injury 6 Points
3. Kenyon Martin injury 15 Points
4. Linas Kleiza injury 6 Points

UNEXPECTED KEY PLAYER PERFORMANCE PROBLEMS
1. Carmelo Anthony a little inconsistent 4 Points
2. Inability of Melo and Najera to give Camby enough support inside 7 Points

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the reserves enough: 7 Points, but varies up to as many as 13 Points in certain games.
2. Lack of adequate offensive schemes: 10 Points. This would be up to 15 points, except that Iverson reduces the damage.

INTENSITY AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity and heart is lacking: 2 Points. It’s not anywhere near bad as some fans who are panicking think it is. This is the least of the problems.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 67, which constitutes ORANGE ALERT.

The Kenyon Martin knee aggravation last night in Houston increases the alert from YELLOW to ORANGE. If Martin were to be declared out for the rest of the season, the problem points would rise, because although the points mostly reflect the current situation, they are modified downward somewhat if it is early in the season to reflect that the problems are likely to go away or be corrected long before the season is over. In other words, as the season goes along, the points for a particular problem gradually go up. The objective is to come out with a total point score that accurately reflects the threat level at the particular point in the season you are at.

It is relatively difficult to get to any worse than YELLOW ALERT early in the season, so the Nuggets are in really bad shape right now.

In terms of points, if you hit 100 points, your season is ruined. It is possible to partly rescue a ruined season, but only if two requirements are met. One, the 100 points is reached no later than the middle of the season, so that there is enough time for a recovery. And two, the number of games for which the BLACK ALERT and 100 or more points of problems are in effect is limited enough so that the damage (the losses) do not become excessive.

I will be refining and tweaking this alert system a little from here on out, but I am sure I have it pretty much on point already.

RESERVE WATCH

There is no Reserve Watch for the Rockets game due to extensive garbage time, where starters were pulled intentionally very early in the 4th quarter because the game was decided.

NUGGETS ESPN RATINGS FOR THIS GAME

Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

The first number is the player’s rating for the game and the other number with the + or – in front of it tells you how much above or below that player’s season player rating his performance in this game was.

Carmelo Anthony 26.2 -11.8
Allen Iverson 18.5 -20.5
J.R. Smith 18.3 +0.1
Yakhouba Diawara 14.2 +5.5
Marcus Camby 14.1 -21.6
Mike Wilks: 10.9 +5.7
Kenyon Martin 7.4 -10.2
Bobby Jones: 6.4 -1.0
Anthony Carter 5.1 -12.9
Eduardo Najera 4.0 -10.3
Nene: Did Not Play-Injury
Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Injury
Linas Kleiza Did Not Play-Injury

NOTE: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.

ROCKETS BEST

Tracy McGrady: 49 1 +10.6
Yao Ming: 37.7 -2.6
Steve Francis: 21.4 +11.5
Sean Battier: 19.2 +2.0
Chuck Hayes: 18.1 +5.5

Mike Wilks played 10 minutes and was 2/4 and 1/1 on 3’s for 5 points, and he made 3 rebounds and 2 steals. Anthony Carter played 24 minutes and was 0/3 and 0/1 on 3’s for 0 points, and he made 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks, and 1 rebound.

Eduardo Najera played 24 minutes and was 1/8 and 0/3 on 3’s for 2 points, and he made 7 rebounds and 1 steal. Bobby Jones played 15 minutes and was ¼, 0/1 on 3’s, and 5/6 from the line for 7 points, and he made 1 rebound.

Kenyon Martin played 15 minutes and was 2/4 and ¾ from the line for 7 points.

J.R. Smith played 26 minutes and was 4/10, 2/5 on 3’s, and ¾ from the line for 13 points, and he made 3 rebounds and 2 assists.

Marcus Camby played 32 minutes and was 1/3, 0/1 on 3’s, and ¾ from the line for 5 points, and he made 9 rebounds and 2 blocks.

Allen Iverson played 35 minutes and was 7/18 and 4/6 from the line for 18 points, and he made 3 rebounds and 2 steals.

Carmelo Anthony played 34 minutes and was 8/20 and ¼ on 3’s for 17 points, and he made 8 rebounds, 3 steals, and 1 assist.

The next game will be Tuesday, November 27 in Denver to play the Pacers at 7 pm mountain time. Neither the Pacers nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights.