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Thursday, October 2, 2008

Return of Nuggets 1: Forum Comments From June, 2008

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have enough time for the detailed and extensive reports I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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JUNE 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

Someone posted this query:

What, in AI's career, causes you to believe that a) its possible to have a decent pg next to him and b) ai would change any part of his game if a pg was there?


I responded:

I don't think it's possible because the better the PG, the more that PG's abilities are mothballed by Iverson, not to mention that you can't afford two ultra expensive guards, so it's a catch-22 that you can't win. If you put in a token PG, someone like Eric Snow (Larry Brown, you are a jerk) or Anthony Carter (but Carter played his heart out this past season, it should be said) then by definition you are not getting the scoring production, and probably not the defending production either, that you need from the PG position.

So no matter what you do after you place AI at SG you are most likely screwed, and this is another huge reason why I have been saying over and over again that the Nuggets have nothing to lose and everything to gain by making AI responsible for the PG role, a possibility which AI himself alluded to in his news conference after the Lakers disaster.

So your (b) is obvious: AI is not going to change no matter what PG is inserted, precisely because he is the 2-guard. The only possibility that AI will change is to make him responsible for keeping the passing game alive and for keeping the assists up. If you are too chicken to try this, you will have the Denver 76'ers until Iverson is off the team.
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Someone posted this on point comment:

Every time I look back at how well JR and Melo were playing together before the incident in NY last year, it makes me sick. Makes me sicker wondering how good they'd be together with two full seasons together.


My response was to elaborate on this guy's point:

This was the top scoring tandem in the NBA at that time and the Nuggets were more rational back then than they are now. Now, they are all messed up, let's face it. Using my LOST analogy, the incident in NY was where the Nuggets crashed on the island, because after that, crazy stuff started to happen, largely because Karl seems to have lost his bearings. Karl went from marginal to downright dangerous as a Coach--dangerous to his own team that is. He turned supernaturally hostile toward J.R. Smith and lashed out at Carmelo Anthony in the press as well. At the same time, though, Smith fell into some kind of island hole too, when he made Karl look better and made a bad coach-player conflict even more complicated, with his June 2007 traffic accident that killed his friend, and by a few lessor transgressions after that.

But I will forever be pissed that the Nuggets didn't get those suspensions reduced. Does anyone think that the big market teams would have accepted without a fight 15 and 10 game suspensions to the top scoring tandem in the NBA? Of course, I understand that a big market team probably would not have been hit with suspensions like that in the first place.

But yeah, before the crash, Nuggets life was good, and even more importantly, it was relatively rational. Now, as Karl himself complains, there is too much drama on the Nuggets. But he can look in the mirror to find out who caused a lot of it.

If you are a Coach, never, ever feed the drama.
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Since Iverson came into the picture after the crash (after the Knicks incident) that would make him one of "The Others."
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Someone asked me a question that had me sweating in my boots (laugh out loud):

I recall the nuggets starting klieza at SG and moving AI to the point game 2 vs the lakers. did Ai play like a point? no. more dribbling up the floor, wasting time on the shot clock, and forcing up shots while ignoring teammates.


I explained to this guy what happened with Iverson at the point in the Lakers playoff series:

He played less like a point after he was the point than he did before he was the point.

It was way too late to do what I want in the Lakers series. And the solution is not simply to play AI at the point, but to make him responsible for the role of the PG. You want to make him responsible for keeping the passing game alive and for keeping the team assists from falling through the floor. To do this, you have to:

1. Assign him to the PG position.
2. Tell him that he will be judged based on how good the Nuggets passing game is and on whether the Nuggets are getting enough assisted scores. You want not only him to pass more but for teammates to pass a little more too.
3. Inform him that the team needs him to make assists MORE than it needs him to score the ball. You can honestly tell him that there is no chance in hell that he will ever win a Championship while blending the two guard positions and while often making the other guard on the floor of little value. His only chance is to become a PG with SG tendencies, because obviously it's never going to happen while he is a SG with PG tendencies.
4. Set a mimimum assists per game target, about 10 assists per game.
5. Since he has played 2-guard for years, after his early years as a PG, big change is not going to happen overnight. But if you were just a little lucky, change would start to happen after a month or two. In any event, you have to give him plenty of playing time to try to meet the above, which will require him to reduce some bad habits he has acquired over many years of playing the 2-guard position with no PG responsibilities whatsoever.

All the Nuggets did in the playoffs was #1.

It was a joke.
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From the guy who predicted Boston over Los Angeles in the NBA finals back in March, namely, me:

The Nuggets will not make the playoffs next season. All six of the following teams will make the playoffs:

Lakers: Obviously
Spurs: Still not old enough to miss the playoffs.
Rockets: Adelman, Yao, McGrady make it a 100% certainty.
Mavericks: New Coach will mostly or totally make up for a relatively bad trade.
Jazz: One of the very best teams in the NBA in theory.
Suns: Still a playoff team despite the bad trade.

And 2 of the following 3 teams will make the playoffs:
Hornets: One Chris Paul injury away from being in big trouble.
Trail Blazers: Oden's arrival almost but not quite guarantees a playoff spot.
Warriors: Don Nelson will not finish behind George Karl, who only seems to be getting worse every year, for two years in a row.

The Nuggets will simply not make the playoffs and we already know that the Denver front office and the owner won't really care that much, given how little they cared about this year's collapse.

Someone has to rescue the Nuggets and their fans or this coming season is going to be horrible, plain and simple.

Signed
Cynical but Realistic Dude
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Lol, but you are correct. That was too much ego for a post, I stand corrected. At least 1 of every 4 had Boston over LA by March.

As a Nuggets fan, I get all defensive because of my team's, uh, um, situation. And when I get defensive, I start wanting to showcase my abilities too much. I'll watch that from now on.
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Does anyone think that the Nuggets can finish ahead of the Trail Blazers this coming year after they have Oden? Being a cynical b@@%%@d, I don't see how the Nuggets can hang with them once they have Oden.

Damn, the Nuggets are frustrating. They pack the roster, pay the luxury tax, get people thinking they are going to contend, but then can't seem to understand some basic things, especially the importance of the PG position. The PG role is NOT something you can just divide up between the other positions and expect the offense to have a good flow.

And what about guard defending, Nuggets coaches? Do you seriously think that having two short guards on the floor at once gives you a chance in hell? Give me a break.
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Comment regarding the Nuggets' decision to not draft a player in the 2008 NBA draft:

You take a couple weeks off from following the Nuggets and all you typically get when you come back is more upset. Shame on the FO. GK needs to fire the FO immediately.
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Here is another comment about the Nuggets electing not to get a player from the draft. I was seriously ticked off:

Oh god, scientists warned about this possibility. Karl's great bias against young players has migrated to the front office and infected them.

Seriously, this was really, really dumb. I was hoping the Nuggets would draft a center, which is a relatively safe position to draft. I came here expecting to comment on whatever point guard was drafted,

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2008 SITE NEWS: THE NOT SO GOOD

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