Sneak Early Look at how the 2010-11 Contending Teams Break Down

Based on the current rosters I have an early look at the contender break down for the 2011 Quest for the Ring. Not all free agents who will land contracts have teams yet, or in other words not all teams are complete as of yet. But most teams are mostly complete.

Mostly we do lengthy reporting chock loaded with proof but we also add some shorter more basic stuff from time to time, such as this little very early sneak peak at the 2011 playoffs and Championship. This will also introduce the revised framework we use to look at the contending teams.

The following is based especially on the real player ratings of players on the current rosters and on what is known about the playoff coaching ability of the coaches of the teams. We are using player ratings from the last season, with the last season weighted twice as much as the year before.

THE EAST
Main Primary Contender: Miami Heat
Alternate Primary Contender: Boston Celtics
Wild Card: Orlando Magic
Long Shot: Chicago Bulls
Extra Long Shot: Milwaukee Bucks

THE WEST
Main Primary Contender: Los Angeles Lakers
Alternate Primary Contender: Portland Trailblazers
Wild Card: Dallas Mavericks
Long Shot: San Antonio Spurs
Extra Long Shot: Oklahoma Thunder

Note: If I didn't know about the coaching errors of the Denver Nuggets I would have listed them as the West Long Shot or at least the Extra Long Shot.

Scheduled for early November is the first ever fall "Situation: Season Outlook" Report, which will explain how and why the outlook for the top teams is what it is. At that time the above breakdown will reflect the beginning of the season rosters, so it may be a little different. But the outlook at that time will not be a lot different from the above, so doing a sneak peak now is justified.

A FEW QUICK NOTES
With regard to the Trailblazers, their status as the Primary Alternate Contender to the Lakers assumes that Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, and Joel Przybilla are all available for most of the season.

Whether Dallas or San Antonio is better is an extremely close call. Were it not for the big coaching advantage for San Antonio, Dallas would be pretty far ahead of San Antonio. But as things are, it is just about a toss up between the Mavericks and the Spurs.

Unless Utah is down shifting as part of a multi-year plan I would think they will pick up a decent player or two between now and when the season tips on October 26. Utah might overtake Oklahoma between now and then.

In the East whether Boston or Orlando is better is an extremely close call. Rajon Rondo left Jameer Nelson and most of the other point guards in the dust in 2009-10 and if he is just as good or even a little better in 2011 then Boston will be slightly better than Orlando even if Shaquille O'Neal is an old man now.

Also in the East, whether Chicago or Milwaukee is better is an extremely close call. If Bogut is not 100% then Chicago is much better than the Bucks.

Despite all the close calls below the top slots, the top slots themselves are very, very clear: Miami Heat in the East and Los Angeles Lakers in the West. Despite the fact that Miami Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra is an unproven playoff coach, it appears right now that only injuries and/or other calamities will prevent a 2011 Heat/Lakers Championship from happening.