In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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MAY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
I have a habit of focusing on the Nuggets' offensive mistakes and problems in greater detail than the defensive, but it turns out that in terms of damage done, the defensive flaws are bigger. The Nuggets like all teams have many flaws, but what things are they the absolute worst at as compared to other teams? There is no doubt about what the Nuggets are worst at, and they are so bad at these things that they can not hope to win a playoff series unless many of these things are improved. Here they are:
1. Defensive anticipation and intelligence: making the right guess as to where the play is going to go.
2. Defending the 3-point shot in general and getting a man on almost every 3-point shooter.
3. Rotating out of screens correctly to try to defend midrange jumpers and 3-pointers as much as possible.
4. Taking away the pass by hustling and blocking the passing lanes, and forcing a dribble or poor shot as much as possible. This is sometimes called “breaking down the offense”.
5. Forcing more turnovers in general and more steals in particular. The Nuggets are too afraid to "gamble" a little on defense and try for the extra steal by defending the passing lanes better. They act as if their opponents can not beat them with midrange jumpers and threes, which has been proved false over and over again, especially in the playoffs. Defense can not be limited to conservative and one-dimensional interior defending; you must have a defensive scheme that includes passing and outside shooting.
6. The Nuggets may need to commit a few more fouls in order to slow down the scoring, passing, and assisting rates of their opponents, which are practically off the scales.
7. Defending the other team's point guard better, especially the outstanding point guards. The Nuggets probably need to double point guards such as Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams.
8. Choosing correctly between zone and man to man defending.
9. The Nuggets if they hope to ever win a playoff series simply can not have a backcourt where both of the guards are 6 foot 3 inches or less. There should rarely if ever be two players on the court who are shorter than 6' 6" tall.
10. J.R. Smith has to start and play at least 30 minutes a game because he is 6’6” tall and because he is precisely the kind of guard defender that the Nuggets have been short on. He is a guard who not always but more and more frequently defends the midrange and 3-point shot correctly, who makes steals at a very good rate, and who generally helps more than the average player in disrupting the passing game of the other team. In particular, it's time for the coaches to stop being so terrified of having J.R. Smith guard point guards.
Investigation shows that the Nuggets are terrible in these aspects of defending, whereas thanks to Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby, they are much better in interior man to man defending, as long as you know who does not do something stupid like put Kenyon Martin on a guard with no Nene available!
There have been those who have criticized Marcus Camby for not helping enough with the above problems, but of all positions on a basketball team, the Center is the one that is least important in dealing with these problems on a correctly run team. Don't limit the blame to Marcus Camby if aspects of defending that are supposed to be guard, swingman, and coaching responsibilities are in a state of disaster. Or, to put it more crudely, Camby can't be expected to guard the interior and the perimeter at the same time.
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Yes, the Nuggets are hopeless in this, which also kills them in the playoffs. If you combine the poor 3-point shooting on offense with the terrible 3-point shot defending, the Nuggets act as if the 3-point shot does not exist. But not only does it exist, it's even more important in the playoffs than it is in the regular season.
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The George Karl News Conference After he Lost 4 Straight Games to the Lakers
He is honest and open at least, most of the time, as television broadcasters have noted. But he takes that to an extreme when he calls out players in the Denver newspapers and television stations.
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Someone asked me an outstanding question:
The Suns' pace isn't that far behind Denver's, and you said yourself that they were even better before they traded for Shaq and slowed the pace down. Why have they managed to stay at the top so long, even coming within bad luck with injuries and suspensions at the wrong time of winning at least one or two championships, when teams like Denver and Golden State can't get past the bottom of the playoff seeding? It seems to me that while it might be harder to win at that pace, it is still quite possible if you have the right mix of coaching and players.
My answer was:
You answered yourself: the Suns had a dream mix of coaches and players. I guess Suns management concluded that Coach D'Antoni is too much of a geek or something, because they should have kept him. Now the Suns future is not very bright it seems to me.
As you can see above, the Suns were by a good margin the best offense in the NBA. I say were because that will no longer be true now that the older Shaq is on this team. They didn't know that they were about the 9th best defense in the NBA; they thought before they did the trade that they were about the 15th best defense or something. They underestimated how good their defense was, so they made a bad trade for a bad reason.
I think that the Suns would have won the title in 2006-07 were it not for the Horry-Stearns incident, and they could have won the title this year were it not for the trade. It probably would have been a 7 game series between the Lakers and the Suns for the West crown.
Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets have top 6 offenses (Nuggets are #8 and Warriors are #11) While the Suns are 9th in defense, the Warriors are 16th and the Nuggets are 19th. So neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets were ever at the level of the Suns.
What upsets me is that the Nuggets should be about 3rd or 4th on offense if they just recognized the importance of the PG position, which is Basketball 101. They could even be 1st now that Shaq is on the Suns. If they were the 3rd or 4th best offense, they would have more to show for their fast pace and for their lazy and inept defense.
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I hate to say it, but I personally think hell will freeze over before Karl wins a playoff series again. I think in the 1990's he used to be sharper than he is now; he's not as good as he used to be, probably due to health reasons.
He makes too many decisions as if he is a scared rabbit these days. For example, he grossly exaggerated the shortcomings and unusual style of little old J.R. Smith, and thereby put a stranglehold on the Nuggets chances both in 2006-07 and this past season by, among other things, not playing him enough and by assuming Smith can hardly play defense at all. So the Nuggets were left with a midget backcourt for way too many minutes and just about the worst guard defending in the NBA, with inadequate 3-point shooting and so forth.
Poor Mr. Karl ended up paying a big price for his faulty evaluation of J.R. Smith because, even though he will apparently not be fired by the Nuggets, he still goes down in history now as one of the worst playoff coaches among all coaches with long head coach careers. All because Smith was too odd for Karl to deal with! Had Karl been able to win at least 8 playoff games in 4 years instead of just 3, which he could have done if he had gotten Smith and the backcourt overall right, he could have just barely avoided the label "One of the Worst Playoff Coaches Ever."
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Someone was on point with respect to why George Karl was not fired in May 2008:
Karl is just tight with the owners, and knows what to say. He will probably be gone after his contract is up. Denver has stuck with him this long, they will probably just wait it out. I honestly don't think there is one person in the front office or on the team who is dedicated to winning. They have the most talented team in the league, but lack the personnel and dedication to play the right way. Hopefully AI opts out and signs with a contender.
I added:
Yeah, maybe they were dedicated only to getting the Nuggets out of last place and to keeping the seats filled up and the merchandise selling. So big deal, they achieved those things. Whoo hoo. The average man on the street could probably achieve those things, actually. As a fan, I need more than those things to be impressed with a front office/owner.
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A joke during the 2008 Championship where Karl is the Coach of the Lakers instead of Phil Jackson:
"Lakers Coach" George Karl's reaction to Kobe Bryant's last ditch end of the game steal in Boston:
That was a foul and not a clean steal. He basically disrespected the game with that play. Kobe Bryant is living in fantasyland and if I were coaching the Lakers, I would bench him for game 6 of the finals.
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Someone got a little confused and thought it was me instead of a mock George Karl making the statement in the previous comment:
I find the criticism of Kobe hilarious coming from a fan of a team whose leader has never been out of the 1st round.
That's not me; I thought the steal was great. I was mocking George "Worst Playoff Coach There Will Ever Be" Karl with a mock quote. He thinks J.R. Smith (of the Nuggets) lives in fantasyland due to his 3-point shooting and due to his sometimes gambling style of defense. He benched Smith for the 2007 playoffs and then religiously refused to start Smith or give him just 24 mpg during the entire 2007-08 season, despite Smith by January 2008 having achieved the status of being one of the best 2-guards in the NBA.
For his next act, Mr. Karl will very, very likely fail to get any playoff spot at all in 2008-09.
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I think the Rockets are almost sure to get out of the 1st round next year, if Yao is back and they have no new major injuries.
I guess my team is led by someone who can't get out of the first round too: C Anthony.
Oh wait, Iverson is considered the sole captain and leader by Karl now.
Oh wait, Karl's management is so wack, that Iverson is not really responsible either.
But having said that, it's time for Melo Anthony to just say no to Karl and to start demanding that the Nuggets have a real PG be that Iverson or anyone else who is qualified. (It can't be a PG who is only real to Mr. Karl.) And its time for him to make sure he is officially and unofficially at least the co-captain of the Nuggets. And it's time for him to not listen to every little micromanagement demand that Karl throws at him. How much benefit did the Nuggets get, for example, from him following instructions to rebound more and shoot a little less. They got nothing to speak of from that.
It's time for Anthony to declare his childhood over and to start to figure out what needs to be done and do it and not listen to Karl's incorrect (and inadequate if they were correct) micromanagement gambits. The Nuggets need more 3-point shooting including from Melo himself. They need J.R. Smith to start for both offense and defense reasons. They need a real PG. They need Nene and K-Mart to play at all costs. They need to learn how to defend the pick and roll and how to rotate much better in general. They need to stop leaving a gazillion 3-point shooters per game undefended.
If Melo does not start working on these things, he's just spinning his wheels and wasting his time, something which (and how ironic is this Holmes?) Karl himself mentioned Melo might be doing these days.
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I think the Lakers and the old wise one (P Jackson) will pull out a game 6 squeaker, in regulation or OT, assuming Rondo's ankle is still a problem. Jackson is a far more experienced playoff coach than is Doc Rivers, and I have a hunch he will figure out a way to pull #6 out.
Anyone have any details on Rondo's ankle?
Then the Celtics will probably win game 7 by about 10 points; the Celtics machine is awesome even without Rondo at full. But the Rondo factor does give the Lakers a small possibility of shockingly taking the series.
I'm definitely not going to miss game 6.
