REAL TEAM RATINGS
Teams Rated According to Playoffs Potential
NBA: NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
AS OF MARCH 5, 2009
1 Cleveland Cavaliers 51.80
2 Los Angeles Lakers 49.80
3 Boston Celtics 49.10
4 Orlando Magic 35.10
5 Houston Rockets 22.70
6 San Antonio Spurs 16.20
7 Utah Jazz 12.40
8 Portland Trail Blazers 10.70
9 New Orleans Hornets 10.00
10 Denver Nuggets 5.20
11 Dallas Mavericks -6.90
12 Atlanta Hawks -9.10
13 Phoenix Suns -15.00
14 Miami Heat -15.10
15 Detroit Pistons -15.10
16 Philadelphia 76ers -19.60
17 Chicago Bulls -23.10
18 Milwaukee Bucks -24.00
19 Charlotte Bobcats -24.50
20 Indiana Pacers -26.80
21 New Jersey Nets -31.60
22 New York Knicks -35.30
23 Golden State Warriors -47.10
24 Toronto Raptors -53.00
25 Memphis Grizzlies -54.90
26 Washington Wizards -63.90
27 Oklahoma City Thunder -64.20
28 Minnesota Timberwolves -67.80
29 Los Angeles Clippers -74.20
30 Sacramento Kings -86.20
QUEST COMMENTS AND PROJECTIONS
Since obviously we are going to stand by the accuracy of these ratings, as far as Quest for the Ring is concerned, the Cleveland Cavaliers are very much for real in this year's Quest, and are not only a threat to the Celtics' getting the ring, but are also a threat to the Lakers getting it as well. Of course, whether the Cavaliers could actually win the Quest would depend largely on one single player: LeBron James.
Generally speaking, this year's Quest is way too close to call between the Celtics, the Lakers, and LeBron James (the Cavaliers). The Magic are a darkhorse possibility; they have in terms of probability roughly a 1.5% chance of winning the Quest. Their chances would have been roughly 2.5% had Jameer Nelson not been removed from their list of available players. At the beginning of the season, it was hoped that the Rockets and/or the Hornets would be competitive with the Lakers, but this was not to be.
It is next to impossible that any other team other than the Lakers, the Celtics, the Cavaliers, or the Magic will win it this year. For example, even the Spurs are simply not fully competitive with these teams this year.
The Nuggets are the NBA's most surprising team this year, but our system rates them lower than most other raters do, and our system shows that the Nuggets are probably not going to win a playoff series, unless they are able to take full advantage of another team's injury, such as Tracy McGrady's injury for the Rockets.
The Pistons are one of the NBA's most surprising teams on the downside this year. Nevertheless, unless they have to play the Celtics, the Cavaliers, or the Magic in round one, the Pistons still have a very decent potential to win a playoff series this spring, precisely because they have a lot of talent that has been mostly hiding out so far this year.
Given how much trouble the Magic have had with defeating the Pistons in head to head games in recent years, including this year, it is not yet out of the question that the Pistons can defeat the Magic in a playoff series. The Magic seem to be very disrupted by the way the Pistons play defense. But as the ratings show, you would have to say as of now that the Magic would be heavily favored over the Pistons if they play in the playoffs this year.
Quest is currently sticking with our Championship forecast of Lakers 4 Celtics 3, but quite honestly the thing is up for grabs between the Lakers and Celtics, and very possibly the Cavaliers as well.
INTERPRETATION OF RATINGS GUIDELINES: TO BE USED AFTER MARCH 1 OF EACH YEAR ONLY
Of all the popular American sports Leagues, the NBA is the one where the better team is most likely to avoid being upset in the playoffs. Therefore, the RTR system can be used to gain knowledge of which team is most likely to win playoff series.
However, due to statistical error, especially unavoidable error introduced by the counting of wins and losses among the best 16 teams, there has to be a 3-4 points difference between teams before you can start to have any confidence at all that one team will defeat another in the playoffs. Aside from statistical error, there are also unknown factors, especially what the injury situation will be for the teams.
Another factor that becomes a big one when two teams with very similar ratings are playing is home court advantage. Home court advantage is estimated to be worth between 5 and 7.5 points.
Interpretation of ratings is not very useful before March 1, due to the need for a fairly high percentage of the season to be over before the projections are statistically meaningful, and due to the fact that the ratings are not relative to time, but rather expand with time.
In the numeric interpretaton guide that follows, the word "roughly" is repeatedly used in front of the probability numbers, as a reminder about statistical error, and to emphasize that unknown factors, especially injuries, will in some cases result in substantially different actual probabilities.
The probability percentages are based on the historical results in the NBA:
DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 0 AND 3.9
The series is a toss-up, when statistical error is considered. There is a strong possibility of a 7 game series. The higher team has roughly a 64% probability of winning the series if it also has home court advantage. But if the slightly higher team does not have home court advantage, then the lower team has a roughly 60% probability of winning the series. These probabilities are too low for anyone to have any confidence in using this system to say who will win.
DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 4.0 AND 7.9
The series can easily go either way, although the higher team has a slight edge, and roughly a 72% probability of winning if it also has home court advantage. If however the higher team does not have home court advantage, then the probability that the higher team will wins drops to roughly 54%, a probability so small that the series is essentially a toss-up. In the latter case, there is a strong possibility of a 7 game series.
DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 8.0 AND 11.9
The series can go either way, but the higher team has a clear edge. The higher team has a roughly 78% chance of winning the series if it has home court advantage, and roughly a 65% chance of winning the series if it does not have the home court advantage.
DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 12.0 AND 15.9
The higher team has roughly a 90% probability of winning the series if it also has the home court advantage, and roughly an 80% chance of winning the series if it does not have the home court advantage.
DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 16.0 AND 19.9
The higher team has roughly a 96% probability of winning the series if it also has the home court advantage, and roughly a 90% probability of winning the series if it does not have the home court advantage.
DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 20.0 AND 23.9
The higher team has roughly a 98% probability of winning the series if it also has the home court advantage. It is basically impossible that the higher team will not also have the home court advantage.
DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 24.0 AND 27.9
The higher team has at least a 99% probability of winning the series. It is impossible that the higher team will not also have the home court advantage.
DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS 28.0 OR MORE
It is close to a 100% certainty that the higher team will win the series. It is impossible that the higher team will not also have the home court
For complete details about how and why Real Player Ratings and Sub Ratings work, and for very detailed information about how Real Team Ratings were developed and are calculated, please consult the USER GUIDE
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