MYTH: The Nuggets are one of the very best defensive teams in the NBA this year.
REALITY: This is false, unless you consider 8th best to be one of the very best. Seven teams all had better defenses this year. Here is the defensive efficiency for the top 15 teams (points allowed per 100 possessions, with the sample being more than 6,000 possessions) so even tiny differences mean a significant, real world difference:
DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY AND FOULS PER GAME
NBA BEST 15 DEFENSES
2008-09 SEASON
1 Orlando Magic 101.9//20.3 fouls per game
2 Boston Celtics 102.3//23.1 fouls per game
3 Cleveland Cavaliers 102.4//20.3 fouls per game
4 Houston Rockets 104.0//18.9 fouls per game
5 San Antonio Spurs 104.3//18.9 fouls per game
6 Los Angeles Lakers 104.7//20.7 fouls per game
7 Charlotte Bobcats 106.1//21.4 fouls per game
8 Denver Nuggets 106.8//22.9 fouls per game
9 New Orleans Hornets 107.0//20.3 fouls per game
10 Utah Jazz 107.2/22.3 fouls per game
11 Atlanta Hawks 107.6//19.6 fouls per game
12 Miami Heat 107.6//20.7 fouls per game
13 Portland Trail Blazers 107.8//20.4 fouls per game
14 Philadelphia 76ers 107.8//20.1 fouls per game
15 Milwaukee Bucks 107.9//24.2 fouls per game
As you can see, the Nuggets don't really have a top rated defense. Houston, the Lakers, the Magic, the Cavaliers, the Celtics, the Spurs, even the Bobcats have a more efficient defense this year. The Nuggets are fronting that they have the best defense; they are as much out to intimidate offensive players as they are to defeat them within the rules.
You know, you likely can not possibly have one of the very best defenses in the League if you insist on being one of the very fastest paced teams. You tell me how you are going to be one of the top 3-4 teams in the NBA defensively while also being a very fast paced team. I honestly have no idea how you would do that. It seems to me that the Nuggets' strategies are not fitting together all that well here.
Notice too that the Nuggets have used a very large number of fouls this year, 22.9 fouls per game, or 1,875 fouls. This is much more than last year, when it was 21.1 fouls per game, or 1,730 fouls. Notice that seemingly small differences in the per game rate translate into a large number.
Remember always that an unknown number of fouls are not called. Quest is on a long term quest to come up with at least a very rough estimate of how many fouls are not called. Don't expect the results of that complicated investigation for awhile.
In fact, why don't we look at the complete list of fouls per game. You will notice that high rates of fouling are generally associated with losing teams, not winning teams.
But for the losing teams, the high rate of fouling is due mostly to lack of defensive skill, whereas the Nuggets, a way above average but not an extremely high defensive skills team as the Jazz are, have clearly adopted a high fouling rate intentionally.
The Nuggets are using what defensive skills they have in overdrive. They are fouling more than they should be based on their skill level. In order to win the Quest for the Ring, you have to correctly calibrate your fouling rate to your defensive skill level. The more highly skilled you are, the more fouls you are "entitled" to. And vice versa.
If you foul more times than you are entitled to, you will eventually run up against a brick wall formed by the League, the referees, and by the high quality offense you are playing in the playoffs. You will not win a Championship doing that.
A team in defensive overdrive leads to flagrant fouls, technical fouls, injuries, and pregame meetings between League officials and referees, so that marching orders can be given regarding how to keep the game under control. And probably other bad things, like loss of morale and enthusiasm.
FOULS PER GAME
2008-09 NBA Regular Season
Even tiny differences are significant
1 SanAntonioSpurs 18.85
2 HoustonRockets 18.94
3 TorontoRaptors 19.43
4 DallasMavericks 19.51
5 AtlantaHawks 19.65
6 LAClippers 20.12
7 Philadelphia76ers 20.12
8 OklahomaCityThunder 20.18
9 ClevelandCavaliers 20.28
10 OrlandoMagic 20.29
11 NOrleansHornets 20.30
12 PortlandTrailBlazers 20.38
13 NYKnicks 20.39
14 WashingtonWizards 20.48
15 PhoenixSuns 20.62
16 MiamiHeat 20.68
17 LALakers 20.71
18 ChicagoBulls 20.84
19 DetroitPistons 20.88
20 CharlotteBobcats 21.39
21 MemphisGrizzlies 21.67
22 MinnesotaT-wolves 21.77
23 UtahJazz 22.32
24 NJNets 22.41
25 GSWarriors 22.46
26 DenverNuggets 22.87
27 IndianaPacers 23.11
28 BostonCeltics 23.13
29 SacramentoKings 23.29
30 MilwaukeeBucks 24.22
A difference of .10 is 8 fouls, a difference of 1.00 is 82 fouls. Check this out for example. The Houston Rockets committed 1,553 fouls this season, whereas the Nuggets committed 1,875 fouls this season! And the Rockets finished as the 4th best defense (104.0 points allowed per 100 possessions) whereas the Nuggets finished as the 8th best defense (106.8 points allowed per 100 possessions).
So obviously you do not have to be a high fouling team to have a really good defense. Defenses can win Championships, but it is much easier for them to win them if they are medium or low fouling defenses than if they are high fouling defenses. Never forget that.
Very, very few Championships have been won by great defenses that are also high fouling defenses. The Celtics' 2008 Championship was one of only a tiny number of Championships won by a high fouling rate team.
And remember, not all fouls are even detected, so the differences between the fouling rates are understated. And also remember, there is an unwritten rule that officials can not call more than a grand total of between 50 and 70 fouls in a game, due to how extremely ugly the game gets (all free throws) if it goes beyond that. There has to be a limit.
DO YOU NEED TO BE A HIGH FOULING TEAM TO CONTEND FOR A CHAMPIONSHIP?
Definitely not. You are most definitely NOT supposed to have to be a high fouling team in order to contend for a Championship. You should generally not do what George Karl has done this year. You should not intentionally run up the foul counts, in an attempt to intimidate and "beat down" the other team, even if you know that by doing that you can get cheap, easy scores off of uncalled fouls.
Why not? Simply because sooner or later you will run into a brick wall. A team with a full scale offense and a quality defense will not be very much intimidated or disrupted by all the fouling, especially when they get very ticked off about it.
They will adapt by, for example, passing more and by driving into the lane in such a way that the referees are more likely to call a foul than not. There are different ways to drive, and some ways are better than others when it comes to getting the foul call. The best offensive teams know what to do to get those foul calls, even if it's like pulling teeth with a given crew of referees.
Also, sooner or later, the referrees will throw the book at you, although it may not be as soon as I thought, laugh out loud. How many games can you afford to just about forfeit when the referees do throw the book at you? You may not be able to afford any such games.
WHAT ABOUT THE CELTICS AND THE JAZZ?
The Celtics and the Jazz have high fouling rates also, so what's up with that?
The Utah Jazz have, according to the Defensive Subrating of the Real Player Ratings, five players with defensive skill levels higher than anyone on the Nuggets:
UTAH JAZZ DEFENDERS
DEFENDING SUBRATING
2008-09 SEASON
As of Feb. 25, 2009
Andrei Kirilenko 0.611
Matt Harpring 0.563
Brevin Knight 0.550
Kosta Koufos 0.547
Paul Millsap 0.529
Kyle Korver 0.461
Carlos Boozer 0.356
Mehmet Okur 0.291
Ronnie Price 0.271
Ronnie Brewer 0.225
Deron Williams 0.147
C.J. Miles 0.070
BOSTON CELTICS DEFENDERS
DEFENDING SUBRATING
2008-09 SEASON
As of Feb. 25, 2009
Kevin Garnett 0.539
Leon Powe 0.429
Gabe Pruitt 0.382
Kendrick Perkins 0.355
Rajon Rondo 0.328
Paul Pierce 0.322
Ray Allen 0.322
Tony Allen 0.290
Eddie House 0.277
Glen Davis 0.230
Brian Scalabrine 0.052
DENVER NUGGETS DEFENDERS
DEFENDING SUBRATING
2008-09 SEASON
As of Feb. 25, 2009
Nene Hilario 0.493
Chris Andersen 0.431
Kenyon Martin 0.415
J.R. Smith 0.409
Renaldo Balkman 0.379
Carmelo Anthony 0.362
Anthony Carter 0.329
Chauncey Billups† 0.293
Linas Kleiza 0.201
Dahntay Jones 0.195
THE UTAH JAZZ VERSUS THE DENVER NUGGETS DEFENSIVELY AND OVERALL
Notice that the Jazz are more loaded with very highly skilled defenders than are the Nuggets. This gives them a "license" to foul a lot and not be considered to be in the wrong.
You have the option to have a high fouling rate if you load up on defensively skilled players and expect to get wins with them. If you know for a fact you are one of the most defensively skilled teams in your League, in the top 15% or so, and your players prefer to play rough, than go ahead and have a high foul rate, if you have some luck and understanding from the refs then it might work out for you.
But you had better be sure you know how to keep on the good side of the refs.
But wait a minute, you say, the Nuggets loaded up on defensively skilled players and expected to get wins from them, so they should have a high fouling rate too, right?
Wrong, for several reasons. First, the Jazz have been loading their team like this for years and years, whereas the Nuggets are a Johnny come lately. The Nuggets have not learned how to run a heavy fouling defense without having the referees throw the book at them. Second, the Jazz' highly skilled defenders are very highly paid, established veterans who are well known by the referees. The Nuggets are not. Third, the Jazz' defenders are more skilled than are the Nuggets defenders; they have more skill to back up their fouling. Fourth, the Jazz run a traditional, conventional, high quality offense, whereas the Nuggets are trying to live off the fouls (the uncalled fouls to be exact) themselves on offense.
THE BOSTON CELTICS: THE 2007-08 CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM, IN 2008-09, AND VERSUS THE NUGGETS
As for the Celtics, even with Garnett they are this year not so much skilled defenders as they are rough and tough defenders in the Nuggets mode.
The Celtics were a high fouling team last year too, when they won the Quest. But they were a much more highly skilled team last year defensively than this year. Last year the Celtics allowed only 98.9 points per 100 possessions, while this year it is 102.3. Last year the Celtics were by a country mile the best defense in the NBA, so the risk they were running that the referees would throw the book at them for fouling a lot was low or very low.
But overall, the Nuggets are on the right track, because they are just doing what the Celtics have been doing? Right?
Wrong. Boston used the heavy fouling aspect of it's League leading defense more as an insurance policy to win the Championship than as the primary weapon to win it. The primary weapon was the extremely high quality defense itself.
Also, and just as importantly, the Celtics last year had a well run and powerful offense, spearheaded by Garnett down low, Ray Allen up high, Paul Pierce all over the place, and Rajon Rondo being a truly outstanding point guard. They had a relatively slow pace, and did not heavily rely on easy scores off of missed foul calls and long rebounds.
Although the Nuggets' offense this year is about as good as the Celtics' Quest winning offense was last year, the way they were run was completely different. The Celtics, unlike the Nuggets, did not heavily piggyback their offense on their defense.
During last years' Celtics' Quest, the Hawks took the Celtics to seven games in round one, the Cavaliers took the Celtics to seven games in round two, and the Pistons took the Celtics to six games in round three, before the Celtics won the Quest for the Ring by defeating the Lakers 4-2 in the 2008 Championsip. So obviously, even for the Celtics, with their much more traditional and conventional offense than the Nuggets have this year, and their far higher defensive quality, winning the Championship with a high fouling rate was a risky strategy.
It's substantially easier, and less risky along the way, to win a Championship with a medium or low fouling rate than it is to win one with a high fouling rate.
If you bring a quality offense to the court and you have a very high quality, intimidating defense that you know for sure can benefit from a high fouling rate, then go for it. If the refs don't like you for some reason you will not win a Championship that way. If you lose a game or two in a key series due to flagrant fouls, technical fouls, or a fight, you can be bounced out right there.
But if you know how to stay on the good side of the referees, and so they keep liking you, the Celtics and a tiny number of other Championship teams have demonstrated that you can win a ring even if you foul early and often.
How exactly you stay on the good side of the referees has been discussed from time to time at Quest, and will be again in the future.
But if your offense is based more on smoke and mirrors, if it's dependent almost completely on that high fouling defense and on fast breaking, then you really have no business running a high fouling rate defense, unless you have a Utah Jazz level of defender quality, unless in other words you have one of the very most highly skilled defensive teams.
If you do that, as the Nuggets are doing this year, whether or not the refs throw the book at you, and if they don't you might get a few playoff wins, you will not be winning a Championship with inadequate playmaking and no offensive identity in the traditional sense.
It is far, far easier to win a Chanmpionship with a quality offense that is not too far off the beaten track in terms of pace and playmaking, and with a medium or low fouling rate, than it is to win one with a high fouling rate and an offense fueled off of that.
Moreover, you can much more easily win a Championship with a great defense that has a low fouling rate than one that has a high fouling rate. Do not make the stupid mistake to think that you have to have a high fouling rate in order to have a high quality defense. Do not try to mock San Antonio for example, the joke will only be on you.
THE FOUR CHAMPIONSHIPS OF THE SPURS
San Antonio won four Championships, in 1999, 2003, 2005, and 2007, more so with defense than with offense. But they in every case committed a lot fewer fouls than their opponents did. And they did have a traditional, conventional, high quality offense, and one not highly dependent on their defense.
In summary, a high fouling rate is often a cheap shortcut that fails in the playoffs, with some exceptions as discussed in this report.
SUMMARY: PREREQUISITES FOR BEING A HIGH FOULING TEAM
1. You are one of the very best defensive teams in the NBA, one of top five at a rock bottom minimum, preferably one of the top three.
2. Your players prefer or are better at a rougher, higher fouling type of defending than a more skill oriented fouling.
3. The majority of your defensive players who you are going to allow to foul a lot are veterans who are well known by most of the referees to be skilled defensive players. And your veteran defensive players know how to remain on the good side of the referees. It's easy to tell how good any defensive player who has been given the green light to foul a lot is at staying on the good side of the referees: how often does he get into foul trouble? Foul trouble and especially fouling out has to be pretty rare, or you can not successfully use a high fouling strategy.
4. Though it does not have to be necessarily one of the best offenses in the League, you need to have a good quality offense that is not too far off the beaten track in terms of pace and the way it is run. It should have playmaking and offensive identity.
5. Your offense should not be excessively, extremely dependent on your defense.
If and only if you meet EVERY ONE of the above, as the Boston Celtics did last year, but as the Nuggets do not meet this year, go for it. Run the rough, heavy fouling type of defense. But don't get carried away now and end up thrown out of games!
SUMMARY OF THE NUGGETS 2008-09
George Karl's scheme this year, to put it simply, is to say to hell with offense, I don't even want to hear the word offense. I have never won a title, and I have decided to conduct this experiment where I see how far I can get with heavy duty fouling, and scoring as many easy points as possible off my defense.
When all is said and done, it's nothing more than a relatively cheap, short-cut way to run a team. On the other hand, it was enough for Denver to finally win a few playoff games, the first four of them though thanks also to New Orleans being the walking wounded, and one more of them due to the referees botching the intentional foul call at the end of game 3.
MYTH: The Denver Nuggets have a better defense this year than last year.
REALITY: The Nuggets had a better defense last year. That's right, you the fooled public. I repeat, the Nuggets had a better defense last year. Not a whole lot better, but better:
Nuggets 2008-09: 106.8 points allowed per 100 possessions, 8th ranked in NBA
Nuggets 2007-08: 106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions, 10th ranked in NBA
But you see, to put it simply, last year the Nuggets did defense the right way. And this year they are doing it the wrong way.
The Nuggets started the 2009 playoffs by beating up on the walking wounded Hornets. But anyone can beat up on a heavily banged up team. So what?
THE CURRENT SITUATION
Last night, the Mavericks tied the series 2-2 with the Thuggets with a masterful 119-117 win over the supposedly top rated Denver defense. 119 points. And now it's 2-2 in this series.
Oh wait, the referees really, really have a lot of disturbing affection for the Thuggets, so it's not 2-2. My bad.
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